这里不是新闻摘要,而是今天的决策摘要:先定市场状态,再写驱动、风险、关键位和仓位边界。
结论:活跃资金分化,说明市场更像结构行情,仍要回到个股信号逐一确认。
| 排名 | 代码 | 名称 | 行业 | 价格 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PAVS | Paranovus Entertainment Technology Ltd | Consumer Defensive | 0.36 | 21.84% | 493,799,485 |
| 2 | LNKS | Linkers Industries Ltd | Industrials | 0.03 | -63.60% | 434,294,435 |
| 3 | RBNE | Robin Energy Ltd | Energy | 2.11 | 91.82% | 183,486,410 |
| 4 | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | Technology | 175.20 | -0.25% | 146,535,657 |
| 5 | RDGT | Ridgetech Inc | Healthcare | 0.13 | -96.29% | 138,763,511 |
| 6 | FEED | ENvue Medical Inc | Healthcare | 2.26 | 58.04% | 130,412,819 |
| 7 | LBGJ | Li Bang International Corp Inc | Industrials | 0.02 | -22.22% | 106,829,973 |
| 8 | CDE | Coeur Mining Inc | Basic Materials | 18.31 | 2.35% | 96,369,131 |
| 9 | ONDS | Ondas Inc | Technology | 10.68 | -2.02% | 96,030,205 |
| 10 | IBRX | ImmunityBio Inc | Healthcare | 7.41 | -21.12% | 86,608,244 |
先看“信号 / 动作提示 / 风险”三列,再决定是否展开进阶列和下方信号卡。
| 代码 | 价格 | 1日 | 趋势 | 信号(分数)i | RSI14i | MACD柱i | 量能/20日i | 状态 | 置信度 | 10D验证 | 5日 | 1月 | 距52周高点 | 支撑位(S1)i | 压力位(R1)i | 获利盘 | 筹码集中度 | 现价 vs 主峰 | 风险i |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 205.37 | +1.33% | 中性 | 看多 (+2) | 53.1 | 1.548 | 0.56x | 震荡等待 | 68% | 中 | 53.8%/+2.35% | n=379 | +4.62% | -3.96% | -22.31% | 202.44 (-1.4%) | 209.90 (+2.2%) | 43.12% | 71.80% | +1.55% | 中 |
| APP | 435.7 | -5.07% | 空头 | 强势看空 (-4) | 38.1 | -0.035 | 0.58x | 震荡等待 | 57% | 弱 | 47.0%/-1.24% | n=281 | -5.09% | +10.80% | -40.61% | 412.38 (-5.3%) | 444.93 (+2.1%) | 30.41% | 47.17% | -3.61% | 高 |
| GOOGL | 290.4 | -3.86% | 空头 | 强势看空 (-4) | 38.0 | -0.464 | 0.61x | 震荡等待 | 65% | 弱 | 38.0%/-1.91% | n=263 | -6.60% | -6.59% | -15.51% | 276.98 (-4.6%) | 291.31 (+0.3%) | 26.77% | 83.33% | -5.29% | 低 |
| TSLA | 383.09 | +0.59% | 空头 | 强势看空 (-4) | 37.5 | -1.165 | 0.72x | 震荡等待 | 61% | 弱 | 49.0%/+0.22% | n=363 | -4.05% | -6.42% | -21.80% | 373.64 (-2.5%) | 397.73 (+3.8%) | 20.33% | 81.31% | -4.80% | 中 |
| AAPL | 251.75 | +0.10% | 空头 | 强势看空 (-4) | 33.9 | -0.711 | 0.34x | 震荡等待 | 61% | 弱 | 45.5%/-1.17% | n=277 | -0.98% | -7.49% | -12.03% | 245.61 (-2.4%) | 259.22 (+3.0%) | 28.02% | 88.82% | -3.34% | 中 |
| META | 593.1 | -1.81% | 空头 | 看空 (-2) | 23.9 | -4.890 | 0.43x | 超卖反弹观察 | 47% | 弱 | 40.4%/-1.19% | n=218 | -4.75% | -7.23% | -24.92% | 589.22 (-0.7%) | 599.27 (+1.0%) | 5.70% | 86.03% | -9.17% | 中 |
| MSFT | 372.74 | -2.68% | 空头 | 看空 (-3) | 21.3 | -1.369 | 0.80x | 超卖反弹观察 | 59% | 弱 | 48.0%/-0.51% | n=306 | -6.68% | -4.18% | -31.24% | 356.84 (-4.3%) | 390.49 (+4.8%) | 1.51% | 74.07% | -7.02% | 中 |
| NFLX | 90.94 | -2.61% | 中性 | 中性 (-1) | 23.8 | -0.755 | 0.39x | 震荡等待 | 28% | 样本不足 | -/- | n=0 | -3.62% | +16.53% | -32.09% | 87.26 (-4.0%) | 94.23 (+3.6%) | 36.48% | 74.89% | -4.43% | 高 |
| NVDA | 175.33 | -0.18% | 空头 | 强势看空 (-4) | 39.5 | -0.851 | 0.45x | 震荡等待 | 61% | 弱 | 36.9%/-3.77% | n=222 | -3.63% | -9.08% | -15.32% | 171.76 (-2.0%) | 177.82 (+1.4%) | 20.49% | 90.74% | -4.80% | 中 |
| UNH | 272.28 | +1.02% | 空头 | 强势看空 (-5) | 31.1 | -0.650 | 0.36x | 震荡等待 | 60% | 弱 | 42.3%/-0.35% | n=371 | -5.32% | -0.61% | -54.26% | 271.53 (-0.3%) | 287.23 (+5.5%) | 13.22% | 76.24% | -3.94% | 高 |
| VRT | 270.9 | +5.82% | 多头 | 看多 (+3) | 60.3 | -2.142 | 0.28x | 震荡等待 | 66% | 强 | 68.3%/+4.04% | n=514 | +0.93% | +7.01% | +0.00% | 259.39 (-4.2%) | 276.40 (+2.0%) | 96.49% | 64.28% | +5.70% | 高 |
| ORCL | 147.09 | -4.70% | 空头 | 看空 (-2) | 45.1 | 0.318 | 0.59x | 震荡等待 | 47% | 弱 | 50.3%/-0.18% | n=314 | -4.91% | +0.65% | -55.20% | 144.81 (-1.6%) | 151.19 (+2.8%) | 13.18% | 61.02% | -4.45% | 高 |
| AMZN | 207.27 | -1.37% | 空头 | 看空 (-2) | 38.3 | 0.158 | 0.42x | 震荡等待 | 51% | 弱 | 41.4%/-1.35% | n=278 | -3.68% | -0.62% | -18.40% | 204.28 (-1.4%) | 211.01 (+1.8%) | 21.87% | 85.23% | -0.84% | 中 |
| PLTR | 154.79 | -3.76% | 中性 | 看多 (+2) | 51.8 | 0.976 | 0.76x | 震荡等待 | 59% | 强 | 58.2%/+3.14% | n=474 | -0.19% | +20.14% | -25.29% | 154.56 (-0.1%) | 157.95 (+2.0%) | 45.73% | 71.02% | -0.24% | 高 |
| AVGO | 318.29 | -1.31% | 空头 | 看空 (-3) | 50.7 | -1.107 | 0.50x | 震荡等待 | 54% | 弱 | 32.0%/-4.18% | n=234 | -0.94% | -2.21% | -22.93% | 313.84 (-1.4%) | 327.53 (+2.9%) | 18.91% | 88.39% | -5.03% | 中 |
| TSM | 343.3 | +1.43% | 中性 | 看空 (-2) | 42.6 | -1.871 | 0.43x | 震荡等待 | 47% | 弱 | 48.4%/-1.61% | n=279 | -0.77% | -11.00% | -11.46% | 337.80 (-1.6%) | 344.70 (+0.4%) | 69.41% | 77.20% | +0.83% | 中 |
| LITE | 801.16 | +9.91% | 多头 | 强势看多 (+5) | 59.9 | 4.919 | 0.45x | 震荡等待 | 84% | 强 | 58.8%/+4.04% | n=430 | +23.34% | +16.40% | +0.00% | 683.82 (-14.7%) | 800.70 (-0.1%) | 99.24% | 47.98% | +14.69% | 高 |
| MU | 395.65 | -2.15% | 中性 | 中性 (-1) | 48.8 | -2.822 | 0.62x | 震荡等待 | 28% | 样本不足 | -/- | n=0 | -14.30% | -5.35% | -14.31% | 389.09 (-1.7%) | 403.17 (+1.9%) | 57.25% | 51.09% | -5.07% | 高 |
| LRCX | 238.87 | +2.38% | 中性 | 强势看多 (+4) | 58.2 | 1.988 | 0.27x | 震荡等待 | 77% | 强 | 57.6%/+1.58% | n=477 | +5.48% | -2.20% | -4.25% | 225.59 (-5.6%) | 248.49 (+4.0%) | 90.47% | 63.37% | +4.16% | 高 |
| GE | 290.65 | -0.31% | 中性 | 中性 (-1) | 17.9 | -4.016 | 0.48x | 震荡等待 | 32% | 样本不足 | -/- | n=0 | -3.79% | -15.91% | -15.93% | 286.50 (-1.4%) | 291.86 (+0.4%) | 22.05% | 84.61% | -2.74% | 中 |
| WM | 224.97 | -1.13% | 中性 | 中性 (-1) | 18.8 | -2.081 | 0.35x | 震荡等待 | 36% | 样本不足 | -/- | n=0 | -4.69% | -2.01% | -8.74% | 224.50 (-0.2%) | 229.97 (+2.2%) | 43.56% | 89.09% | -2.24% | 低 |
| AEP | 128.8 | +0.69% | 中性 | 看空 (-2) | 36.6 | -1.029 | 0.36x | 震荡等待 | 51% | 弱 | 49.4%/-0.33% | n=310 | -3.61% | -2.71% | -3.99% | 126.55 (-1.8%) | 130.92 (+1.6%) | 72.98% | 85.74% | +8.92% | 低 |
| IBKR | 66.13 | -2.52% | 空头 | 强势看空 (-4) | 40.8 | -0.078 | 0.77x | 震荡等待 | 61% | 弱 | 39.7%/-1.35% | n=219 | -3.64% | -8.04% | -15.67% | 64.18 (-2.9%) | 68.38 (+3.4%) | 32.75% | 82.82% | -2.88% | 中 |
| V | 303.91 | -0.17% | 空头 | 看空 (-3) | 26.1 | -0.393 | 0.39x | 超卖反弹观察 | 54% | 弱 | 36.6%/-0.94% | n=273 | -1.48% | -1.08% | -18.59% | 298.01 (-1.9%) | 310.78 (+2.3%) | 8.74% | 87.86% | -6.50% | 低 |
| HOOD | 69.07 | -4.72% | 空头 | 中性 (+0) | 27.5 | 0.056 | 0.71x | 超卖反弹观察 | 25% | 样本不足 | -/- | n=0 | -10.70% | -5.89% | -54.70% | 63.17 (-8.5%) | 74.88 (+8.4%) | 5.21% | 31.35% | -9.83% | 高 |
| UAL | 93.56 | -0.43% | 空头 | 看空 (-2) | 40.5 | 0.439 | 0.50x | 震荡等待 | 55% | 弱 | 46.5%/-1.30% | n=301 | +0.40% | -16.90% | -20.39% | 93.15 (-0.4%) | 94.15 (+0.6%) | 28.38% | 76.82% | +1.16% | 中 |
| VST | 152.72 | +0.95% | 中性 | 看空 (-3) | 42.0 | -1.490 | 0.37x | 震荡等待 | 50% | 弱 | 37.7%/-4.27% | n=260 | -7.07% | -11.01% | -29.92% | 151.34 (-0.9%) | 157.32 (+3.0%) | 14.80% | 80.67% | -6.89% | 高 |
默认看近 6 个月归一化曲线,先找持续跑赢 / 跑输 SP500 的名字,再回到上方信号决定要不要跟。
| 代码 | 当前信号 | 1月超额 | 3月超额 | 6月超额 | 1年超额 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | 强势看多 | +21.99% | +115.09% | +379.05% | +989.60% |
| VRT | 看多 | +13.63% | +68.90% | +70.91% | +190.66% |
| MU | 中性 | -2.77% | +48.18% | +132.98% | +309.65% |
| LRCX | 强势看多 | +1.85% | +38.05% | +73.33% | +207.79% |
| TSM | 看空 | -3.98% | +18.20% | +18.56% | +91.01% |
| AEP | 看空 | +0.80% | +11.89% | +12.96% | +25.14% |
| WM | 中性 | +0.83% | +3.38% | -3.68% | +0.95% |
| IBKR | 强势看空 | -4.31% | +2.30% | -4.39% | +48.74% |
| NVDA | 强势看空 | -5.22% | -3.73% | -11.87% | +45.92% |
| NFLX | 中性 | +22.88% | -4.26% | -33.27% | -4.93% |
| AMD | 看多 | +7.71% | -4.38% | +21.16% | +81.90% |
| GE | 中性 | -11.01% | -6.00% | -10.81% | +39.76% |
| GOOGL | 强势看空 | -3.52% | -6.06% | +7.64% | +74.70% |
| VST | 看空 | -5.74% | -6.93% | -37.28% | +14.69% |
| AVGO | 看空 | -0.40% | -7.09% | -13.41% | +67.94% |
| AAPL | 强势看空 | -2.17% | -8.62% | -8.96% | +15.95% |
| AMZN | 看空 | +4.22% | -9.44% | -16.31% | +3.48% |
| META | 看空 | -3.68% | -10.58% | -29.85% | -2.65% |
| V | 看空 | +2.40% | -13.59% | -19.11% | -10.11% |
| UNH | 强势看空 | -0.31% | -17.45% | -27.58% | -45.40% |
| UAL | 看空 | -9.45% | -18.53% | -17.55% | +18.14% |
| PLTR | 看多 | +21.77% | -20.56% | -21.05% | +61.50% |
| TSLA | 强势看空 | -0.94% | -21.00% | -19.13% | +39.12% |
| MSFT | 看空 | +0.20% | -23.90% | -34.91% | -3.66% |
| ORCL | 看空 | +7.34% | -23.99% | -62.54% | -3.51% |
| APP | 强势看空 | +17.72% | -40.21% | -39.65% | +29.76% |
| HOOD | 中性 | -0.53% | -43.69% | -52.06% | +44.34% |
先看哪些标的的信号、风险标签或关键位发生了实质变化,再决定今天是否要调整观察名单。
| 代码 | 分数变化 | 风险标签 | S1变化 | R1变化 | 解读 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | -6 | 高 → 高 | -8.90% | -5.33% | 信号明显转弱 |
| ORCL | -4 | 高 → 高 | -5.03% | -2.33% | 信号明显转弱 |
| VRT | +3 | 高 → 高 | +7.00% | +6.06% | 信号明显转强 |
| GOOGL | -3 | 低 → 低 | -7.53% | -5.57% | 信号明显转弱 |
| LITE | +3 | 高 → 高 | +0.84% | +2.31% | 信号明显转强 |
这是一个轻量复盘:先看今天信号和当日涨跌是否同向,用来判断模型有没有明显失真。
这里先给结论,不要求你先读图:先判断现在更偏顺风还是逆风,再决定仓位该更激进还是更保守。
先回答“谁相对更贵 / 更便宜”,不单独给买卖结论;真正出手仍要回到信号和风险。
| 代码 | 当前 Forward PEi | 历史分位(%)i | 推导 NTM EPSi | 历史点数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 6.93 | - | 57.09 | 7 |
| UAL | 7.66 | - | 12.21 | 7 |
| UNH | 15.25 | - | 17.85 | 15 |
| NVDA | 15.76 | - | 11.12 | 16 |
| META | 17.11 | - | 34.66 | 16 |
| VST | 17.42 | - | 8.77 | 7 |
| AVGO | 17.94 | - | 17.74 | 15 |
| ORCL | 18.42 | - | 7.99 | 15 |
| AMD | 18.80 | - | 10.92 | 16 |
| AEP | 18.84 | - | 6.84 | 7 |
| MSFT | 19.61 | - | 19.01 | 16 |
| TSM | 19.67 | - | 17.45 | 15 |
| V | 20.88 | - | 14.55 | 7 |
| APP | 21.15 | - | 20.60 | 16 |
| GOOGL | 21.62 | - | 13.43 | 16 |
| AMZN | 22.02 | - | 9.41 | 15 |
| NFLX | 23.78 | - | 3.82 | 16 |
| WM | 24.05 | - | 9.35 | 7 |
| HOOD | 24.09 | - | 2.87 | 7 |
| IBKR | 24.23 | - | 2.73 | 7 |
| AAPL | 27.05 | - | 9.31 | 16 |
| VRT | 33.46 | - | 8.10 | 15 |
| LRCX | 33.83 | - | 7.06 | 7 |
| GE | 33.94 | - | 8.56 | 7 |
| LITE | 70.90 | - | 11.30 | 7 |
| PLTR | 117.17 | - | 1.32 | 15 |
| TSLA | 198.98 | - | 1.93 | 15 |
这部分用于校准“这套信号过去是否靠谱”,帮助定预期,不替代今天的市场判断。
| 周期 | 多头样本 | 多头命中率 | 多头方向收益 | 空头样本 | 空头命中率 | 空头方向收益 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 12495 | 56.9% | +0.99% | 7557 | 45.3% | -0.81% |
| 10D | 12495 | 58.8% | +1.93% | 7557 | 42.5% | -1.81% |
| 20D | 12495 | 61.7% | +4.12% | 7557 | 42.6% | -3.34% |
| 信号桶(10D) | 方向 | 样本 | 命中率 | 平均原始收益 | 平均方向收益 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Bullish | 多头 | 4000 | 56.3% | +1.75% | +1.75% |
| Bullish | 多头 | 8495 | 60.0% | +2.01% | +2.01% |
| Bearish | 空头 | 5458 | 43.2% | +1.65% | -1.65% |
| Strong Bearish | 空头 | 2099 | 40.7% | +2.25% | -2.25% |
把每只股票浓缩成一句话:今天偏多还是偏空?历史上这类信号值不值得信?默认看未来 10 个交易日。